Appreciate the replies. Essentially everyone's opinions is if I can, go for it.

Not related to TRP. But I'll bite.

Generally there isn't a "good" or "bad" time to buy real estate. That "bubble" isn't going to burst. The best piece of advice is to buy a house that you can afford, when you can afford it, and because you want to own the property that you live in.

And as a general rule of thumb when it comes to investing in any security or asset...time in the market > timing the market. Which means that investing in something long term almost always yields higher results than trying to play the game of "buy low, sell high."

Speaking from the experience of buying a house roughly 5 years ago, and managing my own stock portfolio.

I have been waiting for the housing market to meaningfully fall for the last 30 years. My father said it wouldn't as he had never seen it do so. He was right.

In the end I just got on with it, bought 3 houses in that time, sold 2 and bought the other half of the third off an ex. Each time the house was worth rather more than when I bought it.

Until they sort immigration and planning regulations out and all the costly woke shit that has to be put into a new house, stop paying government benefits to let bums and losers rent houses for free (which creates a landlord market to compete with the home owner market and the lower end) the market won't meaningfully fall.

You might get lucky and get a bit of a discount to last year's prices but the market rises many more years than it falls. Odds are while the market rises, your capital will sit dwindling thanks to inflation plus rent. In a market with a strong up trend year on year, the trend is your friend. Like pofkat says, time in the market in this kind of market is better than trying to time it.

The big kicker in waiting for the market is the inflation. This fiat bullshit is designed to reduce government debt by reducing the value of currency gradually over the years. If you are going to win by being out of the housing market, you need to be in a lucrative and fairly stable investment that outstrips inflation plus your rent. Those are pretty hard to find and when a man does find them he spends the rest of his life saying how smart he was when maybe he was just lucky.

My assistant has gone on a red pill journey in the 12 years I have employed him. He was paying the rent for a slut who made him sleep on the sofa unless she was drunk. He now lives rent free on his family's farm in return for some chores, dates women without cohabiting and saves almost all that I pay him. However I fear he may never get the house he is saving for thanks to the inflation on his savings which he fears to invest and keeps in an instant access savings account. Its like taking 2 steps forward and 1 back again each year. Beware the inflation.

Not related to redpill ....but still interesting.

There is a phrase in the trading game 'never wait for the rate'.

It's very true. People get caught out all the time by trying to time the market, esp on the short side.

Here's a question: what do you think will happen if there is a meaningful decline in property values?

Answer: well, in the last 20 years, the answer has always been - the gov will start up the printing presses. They are far more afraid of asset price declines than they are of inflation. They do not care about inflation - inflation is their friend. Inflation erodes the value of their huge debt pile, and pushes up nominal GDP.

You are making the mistake of evaluating the economic variables (which look quite grim) and not paying attention to the likely response of the gov and federal reserve.

At the first meaningful sign of distress in property, they are going to hit control P. I would bet on it.