How to make money off women: I give you the white girl index fund | TheRedPill

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whytehorse2021

Posted 10mo ago in Finance - Permalink - Locked - 1.5K Views

Original post: https://www.reddit.com/r/investing/comments/14fxrhv/follow_up_the_white_girl_index_posted_here_in/

Inspired by u/thisistheperfectname's original post here, I back-tested the "White Girl Index" (also known as $BECKY) with equally weighted stocks going back to 2013. These are public companies with major product lines enjoyed particularly by white girls, who possess disposable income and the ability to set cultural trends.

The index had annualized returns of ~17% over 5 years and ~13% over 10 years, you can see the chart here.

There were 22 stocks in the index, some of them weren't public 10 years ago, so I included them only after they IPO-d. The best and worst performers in terms of 5 year returns are below. I've not included and "new" White Girl Index stocks that went public after the original post in 2018.

Best (annualized 5 year returns)

DECK: +59%

ETSY: +55%

LULU: +42%

AAPL: +40%

LVMUY: +25%

Worst (annualized 5 year returns)

VFC: -18%

UAA: -17%

GOOS: -17%

SNAP: -6%

DIS: -4%

Overall, 16 of the companies had positive returns and 6 had negative returns. What I learnt from the analysis is that there are a bunch of "superstars" within this group, whos returns easily compensate for the laggards.

The full list of companies and calculations can be found here.

EDIT: Since its been 5 years, I guess it's the right time to rebalance, so some suggested adds and removals below.

Remove (these have become less popular)

GOOS

UAA

BBWI (LB)

DECK?

SNAP?

Add (these have become more popular)

SHOP

SPOT

CROX

LLY (Eli Lilly) and NVO (Novo Nordisk)

DASH

PINS

Contenders

ABNB? BKNG?

LYFT / UBER?

FL? Footlocker

PTON?

SFIX?

ELF? Elf beauty

BROS?

CPRI?

SG?

MAT?

TJX? TJ Maxx

OLPX? Olaplex hair care

HESAY Hermes

MTCH Match Group and BMBL Bumble

SPG Simon Property Group

YETI Yeti

RENT Rent the runway

Please comment if there are any others I should add / remove.

Permalink

Stoksks 10mo ago

The idea is cool, but predictability of what is in fashion... hard?

YOu could measure indicators like queues in front of apple shop on release of new product, foot traffic secret measuring device to brick and mortar shops, but with online retail shops having unknown quantity in sales [unless searchengine clicks info can be bought for estimation] and then assuming some people discovered that as well - is the 'fashion' factor already included in shares price?

On trp red I was discussing what is the point of owning share altogether... since it is gold pot consisting only of gold that people put into it [similar to lottery]. As far as I can see it, for retail investor it is only dividends and someone suggested tax avoidance, but then since if some people will loose and some gain money, even within share market there will be people that lost more on shares against taxes that won.

In my country no extra taxes on shares profit is around $5k.

Some consumer sector stocks face potential headwinds in the back half of the year with the resumption of student loan repayments and a likely trend of food disinflation. The debt ceiling agreement struck in May ensures student loan payments will resume in September after a ~3.5 year pause. While the Supreme Court is due to rule in coming weeks on the Biden Administration's debt relief plan, which would cancel up to $20K of student debt for Pell Grant recipients and up to $10K for other low income borrowers, some level of repayments will begin regardless of how the high court rules. Over 45M people have student loans, with the average balance at around $35K. Of note, about 40% of Millennial and 25% of Gen X households have student loan debt. Analysts believe U.S. consumers with student loans will likely disproportionately reduce spending on soft goods in comparison to other categories as they shift funds to pay down debt. Wells Fargo estimated the upcoming student loan repayment headwind of up to $6B per month could impact discretionary consumer spending by 1% to 2%. The firm noted Dick's Sporting Goods (DKS), Best Buy (BBY), Target (TGT), and Ulta Beauty (ULTA) screen the worst within the sector for potential exposure to a negative impact from student loan payments starting again. Gordon Haskett warned the resumption of federal student loan payments for ~27M borrowers in September could weigh on Q4 order volumes for DoorDash (DASH) with delivery costs well above traditional carryout. DoorDash (DASH) lost its bull rating at the firm due in part to the student loan repayment issue. For its part, UBS thinks brands and retailers more likely to be negatively impacted by the student loan issue include American Eagle Outfitters (AEO), Carter's (CRI), Crocs (CROX), Foot Locker (FL), Canada Goose (GOOS) (GOOS: CA), Gap (GPS), Nordstrom (JWN), Nike (NKE), Steven Madden (SHOO), Under Armour (UA) (UAA) and Victoria's Secret (VSCO).

Apparel is fashion is rather unstable, maybe except long standing firms but then these are influenced by starts and if main star would change outfitter then sentiment might change quick.

Care stuff also changes depending on fashion, promotion and the new next best thing.

whytehorse2021 10mo ago

Well, you can always predict the trends if you know this: women buy stupid shit. They control 80% of the money in the US. They redecorate their house every year with their husband's money. I've accidentally been researching this all my life. Go look at goodwill. Then go look at hobby lobby. Then go look at a chick's house. Every single one of them has a framed art in all the rooms. The bathroom will probably have art with a cat sitting on a toilet. Where do you buy those? Etsy, hobby lobby, goodwill. You can't buy stock in good will or hobby lobby, hence ETSY

Ask any chick what kind of phone she has. It's an apple(unless she's poor and so who cares because you can't make money off poor people). Hence AAPL

Ask any rich white chick who made her purse. It's Louis Vuitton. Hence LVMUY.

The trends are actually set by advertisers, not women. Here we see that by targeting the companies that advertise to rich white chicks we can make money.