Poker is a sadistically difficult game to learn. You can make a statistically good move and get punished for it when your opponent lucks out, or you can make a statistically bad move and get rewarded for it if the cards happen to fall your way. The edge a good poker player has is often very small. You’ll find yourself in situations where the odds of a given play winning are 55%, yet it’s entirely possible that you’ll lose 5 times in a row when making that play. You’ll be tempted to go home thinking that the play was a dud, but if you stick it out and try it 1,000 times then you’ll most certainly come out with a big pile of cash. Statistical advantages always actualize in the long run. But how can you be confident that your play actually has a statistical advantage, even when it lost the last 5 times you tried it, and even when everyone at the table is taunting “Hahaha bro, that’s a terrible play.”
Learning to navigate the sexual market place has exactly the same sort of pitfalls. It can feel random, and it’s hard to know when you’re actually doing it right.
You can be thin as a twig and still find a girlfriend. She’ll tell you that muscularity is overrated, and you’ll think “Well, I guess muscularity isn’t that important then. I’m not muscular and I found a decent girl, after all.”
The sample sizes you have in your every day life are often not significant enough to help you see the forest for the trees. It could be that your parents and two other couples you know have stable, outwardly happy, “good” marriages. Yet if you were to examine a sample of 100,000 couples, inside and out, you’d see how much of a dud modern marriage is, and how the couples you know are outliers.
Perhaps a few months have gone by at the gym. You’re in better shape now, so you grab some new clothes, groom yourself properly, and confidently and hit up your local night game. Over a short period you find three girls who you have solid chemistry with, but two are already happily taken and one experiences some traumatic medical event the day after you meet her. You feel like giving up, but you shouldn’t. The things you did to improve yourself really did give you an edge, you just haven’t played the numbers enough yet for that edge to actualize. Over small sample sizes results can seem random. You have to keep trying.
Useeikill 5y ago
As a poker player myself, your analogy is extremely on point! This is also why I like RPT because it adds a nice nuiance to MGTOW's moto "The only way to win is not to play", well through the red pill I have seen that as a guy in the social media dominated 21st century - "The only way to win is to play as much as possible"
Ludakrit 5y ago
Nuance*
Additionally, that only applies to getting married. There are plenty of guys who read both /trp and /mgtow and various other rp subs.
Useeikill 5y ago
A yes when I typed oue nuance that first time I knew I fucked it up somehow, thanks! In addition I think it's good for a guy to take whatever is most valuable from each corner of the manosphere.
Two_kids_in_a_coat 5y ago
I don’t know much about mgtow but isn’t it opposed to trp philosophy?
Ludakrit 5y ago
There are only two things that make someone a mgtow; they don't cohabitate with women, and they don't get married. That's it. There are a variety of diverse viewpoints after that. Some guys avoid women altogether, some are probably shut ins, and some PND.
Some of the guys there certainly think that it's "too risky" in the current climate to bother with dating, and as a cohort I'd say that they are far more risk averse than trpers.
Personally I've been involved in pua/trp/mgtow for 10+ years now, and I find some of their posts helpful, some humorous, etc... I also think it's a good thing to beware the dangers of marriage so you don't end up captured and can just keep slaying forever.
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Useeikill 5y ago
You mean not having social media? I think that is a small disadvantage, when it comes to girls, as one then won't know which bars, clubs or places they frequent. However by the same token, I have a friend who is completely off the grid and now has a LTR and the girl is somehow charmed/attracted at how he doesn't have social media. So I guess it depends on how you play your cards and how stable your frame is.
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Nicolas0631 5y ago
if you have it for validation, yes. But it also happen to be damn conveniant to keep in touch with friends. You don't have to publish anything and just use for a chat from time to time with a old friend in another city or just organizing the next meeting.
Useeikill 5y ago
This is true but it is also worth it if you genuinely have an interesting life, if you have some pics of you at a festival, with the bois, a cool portrait pic and most importantly a few pics with other girls, I think that will also do wonders for your SMV, in spite of the social media game being rigged in favor of a bunch of girls circle jerking on heavily filtered photos with "YASS SLAY SLAY QUEEEE333N"
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Useeikill 5y ago
No I wouldn't say you are and again I agree with your points. Also who knows, maybe I am abusing insta too much even though I only allow myself to view it once per day so that I can still react to any spicy stories from the girls that I see. I say why not do both the things you mentioned? Be mysterious still and don't show all your cards on insta but still lurk enough so one can keep up with the material. ????????
Aroundwork 5y ago
TL;DR Don't lose the forest for the trees
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Tcarnage206 5y ago
AKs vs QQ is a flip... Not even 55% like 51-52% minus rake in those spots(depending on blockers)... Just saying... Also those spots in poker your going to make money or EV long-term.. So yes 55% realistic... Proof sharkscope my Nick and see sample size or go and look at anybody on the leaderboards for sharkscope.com
[deleted] 5y ago
Duuuuude I have a whalehunt of a NL omaha hilo game that plays every Friday. It’s not uncommon to see 10-15k on the table. Couple decent players that extract money from the game. Couple major whales that shit out money like it’s going out of style. The swings at this table are brutal ain’t gonna lie there. My bankroll cannot afford the variance to play every week. I still get in when the getting is good. A solid tight game (I loosen up too much if I drink too much) yields reasonable results for someone with passable omaha hilo skills.
Its helping finance some sidegigs as I cash out the bankroll. My problem is Omaha is just not my game of choice. I’ve been dabbling into Omaha strategy yet I just don’t have the passion for this game. Still... mostly easy pickings.
Do you get sick of the hours? I love poker yet I get bored playing after 3+ hours.
Imperator_Red 5y ago
My understanding has always been that good players have a huge edge over the long run. Over the short run it's pretty random though. It's like baseball. It's not like a boxing match where a pro is virtually guaranteed to beat an amateur every time.
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Imperator_Red 5y ago
So it's just a matter of how you define the long run.
8380atgmaildotcom 5y ago
The discussion about randomness, variance and trends over periods of time and the observation you made in the post above are exactly the questions that are addressed in Benoit Mandelbrot's work The Misbehavior of Markets. Worth checking out. PDFs are on google.
redpillcad 5y ago
You have to keep trying This isn't just dating. Its sales. Its fitness. Its life.
Want something? Put your focus on the process to achieve it. Dont focus on the outcome
LandoChronus 5y ago
1) Don't listen to what they say, watch what they do.
2) Don't be a pussy and quit after "clicking" with 3 girls and it not working out.
3) Stop trying to "click" with girls and make it happen.
Quaternionz 5y ago
1) What a useless response
2) What a useless response
3) What a useless response
Malnourished1 5y ago
I believe your post was very good but this comment of yours is disappointing. Maybe you felt he was taking value from your post but in actuality, he added to it by directly showing related red pill ideas from your post that other users may not have gleaned out of the post.
person8445 5y ago
Great analogy.
Maximise your odds. But even with pocket aces you can still lose.
One time I was gaming a girl, everything went perfect. Text book stuff, push/pull, kino, etc etc. Even got lucky with social proof as I knew the bar tender and he brought over some shots. She had her legs over me at one point. Tried to kiss her 2 or 3 times but no luck. Still no idea why. Sometimes you just lose.
But if you play enough hands you are bound to win eventually.
ryuamakusa_daq 5y ago
This is very similar to the stock market too.. A good trader has his "strategy" (a pattern that he will trade only if and when it appears), and there is a certain risk-reward involved with the strategy.. so among 50 trades, he ends up with many small losses, but a few BIG wins.
sanitypanacea 5y ago
this is a great thread and gives me hope in a rough and unique situation
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